Mr. Smarty Man

NFL Prediction

Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots Prediction

AFC Championship winner prediction for the 2012-2013 season.

January 19, 2013

By Scott Croco

Patriots

The Ravens have played well in the post-season, dispatching the Colts and Broncos, they act like they are on a mission to win a Super Bowl for Ray Lewis. The Patriots are a perennial Super Bowl contender and have had another good year. Which team will win?

Ravens Patriots
12 - 6 Record 13 - 4
10.8 Strength of Schedule 10.2

 

Offense

The Ravens regular season offensive score was 29.9 and their post-season offensive score is 40.7. The Patriots regular season offensive score was 43.8 and their post-season offensive score is 57.1. The Patriots are well-known by their efficient, Tom Brady led, offense, and have the clear advantage here.

Edge: Patriots


Defense

Baltimore has been identified by their defense for a decade, but had a bit of a down year in 2012. This unit has played better in the playoffs, with a regular season defensive score of 15.9 and a post-season defensive score of 18.5. The Patriots' defense is decent, but has not yet been stellar in the playoffs. The Patriots regular season defensive score was 19.6 and their post-season defensive score is 5.2. This is a virtual tie, with the Patriots having an infinitesimal statistacal edge.

Edge: Patriots


Special Teams

The Ravens' special teams are usually great but have been a disaster in the playoffs, giving up 2 touchdowns on kick returns. Their regular season special teams score was 8.3 and their post-season special teams score is -4.0. New England has been good on special teams this year, and have also fallen off in the playoffs. The Patriots regular season special teams score was 7.5 and their post-season special teams score is 1.0.

Edge: Patriots


Miscellaneous

The Ravens played slightly tougher opponents, while the Pats have a better record. The Patriots have a monster turnover ratio, the Ravens get called for too many penalties, and New England has a big point differential.

Edge: Patriots


Final Verdict!

This game shouldn't be close. The Patriots should walk away with a win, expecially considering they are playing at home. The Ravens seem to think they can't be beat, so they'll probably make it challenging.

Predicted Winner: Patriots

Stats:
Team Y MSM Off Def ST Misc
Baltimore Ravens 2012-2013 76.32 33.5 16.7 4.2 9.0
New England Patriots 2012-2013 100.27 46.4 16.7 6.2 15.6
     

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