Mr. Smarty Man

NFL Prediction

New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens Prediction

AFC Championship winner prediction for the 2011-2012 season.

January 22, 2012

By Scott Croco

Patriots

The Patriots distinction this year is its passing offense. They don't run the ball all that well and they don't play defense all that well. But their passing game is so dominant those other things don't seem to matter. The Ravens are a well-rounded team that wins with its perennially strong defense. Which team will advance to the Super Bowl?

Patriots Ravens
14 - 3 Record 13 - 4
7.9 Strength of Schedule 9.2

 

Offense

The Patriots offense can seemingly score at will, using a unique double tight end attack. Their regular season offensive score was 42.2 and their post-season offensive score is 61.7. The Ravens can play ball control and hurt other teams with Ray Rice. The Ravens regular season offensive score was 29.1 and their post-season offensive score is 16.2.

Edge: Patriots


Defense

New England's defense is suspect. Bill Belichick is a great coach and game-planner, but their defense has not exactly been winning games for them this year. The Patriots regular season defensive score was 11.4 and their post-season defensive score is 26.5. The Ravens have long been lead with defensive excellence by Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, and others. The Ravens regular season defensive score was 27.6 and their post-season defensive score is 21.3.

Edge: Ravens


Special Teams

The Patriots have been good on special teams this year, they are great on punt coverage, often pinning the opponent inside their 20. The Patriots regular season special teams score was 6.4 and their post-season special teams score is 6.9. Baltmore's special teams are just okay. Not bad, but nothing special either. The Ravens regular season special teams score was 4.1 and their post-season special teams score is 2.0.

Edge: Patriots


Miscellaneous

The Pats and Ravens had similar records, while the Ravens did it against a slightly tougher set of opponents. Baltimore's ability to win the time of possession battle helps them, but New England's big point differential gives them a slight edge.

Edge: Patriots


Final Verdict!

The Patriots should be able to eliminate the Ravens by putting up a big score and taking care of the details that help win football games.

Predicted Winner: Patriots

Stats:
Team Y MSM Off Def ST Misc
New England Patriots 2011-2012 94.93 46.1 14.4 6.5 11.2
Baltimore Ravens 2011-2012 81.74 26.6 26.4 3.7 11.0
     

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