Mr. Smarty Man

NFL Prediction

New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos Prediction

AFC Championship winner prediction for the 2013-2014 season.

January 19, 2014

By Scott Croco

Broncos

The Patriots had a roller coaster season, but still managed to dispatch the Colts in the playoffs with no trouble at all. The Broncos set NFL records with their offense while sporting a somewhat suspect defense. Which team will win?

Patriots Broncos
13 - 4 Record 14 - 3
9.2 Strength of Schedule 8.8

 

Offense

The Patriots regular season offensive score was 32.7 and their post-season offensive score is 54.1, they really crushed the Colts in their one playoff game so far. The Broncos regular season offensive score was 46.5 and their post-season offensive score is 46.9. The Broncos Manning-lead offense is their signature, and have a strong advantage here, despite the Patriots strong playoff game.

Edge: Broncos


Defense

New England's defense hasn't been their selling point for a number of years now, and while this unit stepped up a little in the post-season, with a regular season defensive score of 15.5 and a post-season defensive score of 18.8, I'm not sure that's good enough to stop the Broncos' offense. The Broncos' defense was at times a liability this year, and has not really improved in the playoffs. The Broncos regular season defensive score was 13.9 and their post-season defensive score is 14.1. This is an underwhelming battle, with the Patriots having a small statistical edge.

Edge: Patriots


Special Teams

Both teams have decent speacial teams, and both teams played worse during the playoffs so far. Not much else to say. New England's regular season special teams score was 6.7 and their post-season special teams score is 3.4. Denver's regular season special teams score was 6.9 and their post-season special teams score is 3.6.

Edge: Broncos


Miscellaneous

The Patriots are very disciplined, they keep the penalties low, and have a solid turnover ratio. The Broncos have an incredible time of possesion average, and an excellent point differential.

Edge: Broncos


Final Verdict!

The Broncos at home should win this fairly decisively. Forget about Manning's record vs Tom Brady, it doesn't mean much for this game.

Predicted Winner: Broncos

Stats:
Team Y MSM Off Def ST Misc
New England Patriots 2013-2014 86.31 37.0 16.2 6.2 12.1
Denver Broncos 2013-2014 99.04 46.6 13.9 6.2 15.6
     

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