Mr. Smarty Man

NFL Prediction

Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction

Super Bowl winner prediction for the 2010-2011 season.

February 4, 2011

By Scott Croco

Packers

The Giants have played very well in the post-season, dispatching the Falcons, Packers, and 49ers, three tough teams. The Patriots clear strength is its passing offense. Their passing game is so dominant it compensates for their other weaknesses. Which team will win the Super Bowl?

Packers Steelers
13 - 6 Record 14 - 4
11.3 Strength of Schedule 10.5

 

Offense

The Giants have shown an ability to make big plays and have continued to do so in the playoffs. The Giants regular season offensive score was 30.8 and their post-season offensive score is 38.4. The Patriots offense can seemingly score at will, using a unique double tight end attack (they might be in trouble if Gronkowski isn't at full health). Their regular season offensive score was 42.2 and their post-season offensive score is 43.2.

Edge: Packers


Defense

New York is known for their athletic and troublemaking defensive line. After an unimpressive regular season, this unit has played very well in the playoffs. The Giants regular season defensive score was 13.4 and their post-season defensive score is 27.5. The Patriots' defense is suspect, but has improved in the playoffs. Bill Belichick is a great coach and game-planner, but their defense has not exactly been winning games for them this year. The Patriots regular season defensive score was 11.4 and their post-season defensive score is 17.8.

Edge: Packers


Special Teams

The Packers' special teams, which were decent in the regular season, fell off a cliff in the playoffs. Their regular season special teams score was 4.2 and their post-season special teams score is 0.8. Pittsburgh has been good on special teams this year too, and experienced only a slight drop in the playoffs. The Steelers regular season special teams score was 4.9 and their post-season special teams score is 3.4.

Edge: Steelers


Miscellaneous

This category is practically a draw. The teams have similar win-loss records, similar strength of schedule, and similar turnover ratios. The Packers have a slightly better point differential and a lower penalties efficiancy.

Edge: Packers


Final Verdict!

The Giants have played markedly better in the playoffs than in the regular season. The Patriots have also improved in the playoffs, but not at the same increase of the Giants. The Giants improved 25% on offense and 105% on defense. The Patriots improved 2% on offense and 56% on defense. This is a close one.

Predicted Winner: Packers

Stats:
Team Y MSM Off Def ST Misc
Green Bay Packers 2010-2011 101.87 34.1 31.8 2.7 16.1
Pittsburgh Steelers 2010-2011 94.06 27.7 31.0 4.4 15.2
     

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