Mr. Smarty Man

Hollywood Prediction

Oscar Prediction: 2019's Best Picture

And the 92nd Academy Awards Best Picture winner will be ...!

February 8, 2020

By Scott Croco

Parasite (or 1917)

Introduction

This is a prediction for the winner of the year's Best Picture Oscar using a mathematical formula. Inspired by data-centric entities like the Football Outsiders, BoxOfficeQuant, and the VFX Predictinator, I devised an algorithm to accurately forecast the annual Best Picture Oscar winner.

Prior to the 2011 Academy Awards, I cooked up a recipe using quantifiable data (box office, critical reviews, award nominations & wins) that successfully predicted the previous decade of Best Picture winners (with one exception, Crash in 2005). This formula then accurately projected The King's Speech as the Oscar winner in 2011, and went on to properly foresee 4 winners in 6 years. See the past predictions and nominees from all years pitted against each other.

After incorrect predictions in 2014 (Gravity instead of 12 Years a Slave) and 2016 (The Revenant instead of Spotlight), I tweaked the formula to correctly predict the winners of those years and this 2.0 version of the formula has been retroactively applied to all years. Unfortunatly the 2.0 algorithm failed to predict the 2017 and 2018 winners.

There's no way this formula can be wrong 4 years in a row. Is there? The top 2 films are pretty tight, separated by only two points! The past two years my #2 film turned out to be the winner, so I figure this year either I've predicted correctly with the #1 film, or the #2 film will win and at least keep that trend going. It's super close! Really either of them could win!

Data

(click column headings to re-sort)        
Film Prediction
Score
Critical Predictor Commercial Predictor Awards Predictor
Parasite 35.82 15.53 10.39 9.40
1917 33.52 13.31 9.31 10.40
Little Women 27.19 11.84 9.21 5.63
Joker 26.57 10.49 7.72 7.86
Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood 25.78 7.85 9.09 8.84
The Irishman 25.09 11.29 5.00 8.80
Jojo Rabbit 24.36 7.81 10.48 5.56
Marriage Story 23.79 11.96 5.00 6.83
Ford v Ferrari 23.69 12.03 9.45 2.22
Film Score Critics Box Offfice Awards
Parasite 35.82 15.53 10.39 9.40
1917 33.52 13.31 9.31 10.40
Little Women 27.19 11.84 9.21 5.63
Joker 26.57 10.49 7.72 7.86
Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood 25.78 7.85 9.09 8.84
The Irishman 25.09 11.29 5.00 8.80
Jojo Rabbit 24.36 7.81 10.48 5.56
Marriage Story 23.79 11.96 5.00 6.83
Ford v Ferrari 23.69 12.03 9.45 2.22
Film Score
Parasite 35.82
1917 33.52
Little Women 27.19
Joker 26.57
Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood 25.78
The Irishman 25.09
Jojo Rabbit 24.36
Marriage Story 23.79
Ford v Ferrari 23.69

The critics loved Parasite this year, as evidenced by it's 15+ score in that category. No nominee in the previous two years has even reached 13, but 1917 did this year, and that's why this is such a close race. Jojo Rabbit has the most favorable box office indicator this year, barely edging out Parasite. 1917 has the best awards circuit score, with Parasite on its tail. I'm telling you right now, either Parasite or 1917 is your winner.

Prediction

A very strong set of nominees this year with an average score of 27.3. Compare that to the two prior years which averaged 23.7 and 25.2. This year's nominee with the least chance of winning (Ford v Ferrari) would have been middle of the pack in those years. With Parasite scoring well in all three categories, it should be able to pull off the win on Oscar night! Even though my gut says a non-English-speaking film probably won't win. In which case 1917 should be able to pull off the win on Oscar night!

Predicted Winner: Parasite (or 1917)

     

More Best Picture Predictions

Oscar Prediction: 2018's Best Picture
Oscar Prediction: 2018's Best Picture
Let's keep trying in spite of the recent misses.
Oscar Prediction: 2017's Best Picture
Oscar Prediction: 2017's Best Picture
I'll be as surprised as you if it comes up accurate this year.

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