Mr. Smarty Man

Hollywood Prediction

Oscar Prediction: 2018's Best Picture

And the 91st Academy Awards Best Picture winner will be ...!

February 24, 2019

By Scott Croco

The Favourite

Introduction

This is a prediction for the winner of the year's Best Picture Oscar using a mathematical formula. Inspired by data-centric entities like the Football Outsiders, BoxOfficeQuant, and the VFX Predictinator, I devised an algorithm to accurately forecast the annual Best Picture Oscar winner.

Prior to the 2011 Academy Awards, I cooked up a recipe using quantifiable data (box office, critical reviews, award nominations & wins) that successfully predicted the previous decade of Best Picture winners (with one exception, Crash in 2005). This formula then accurately projected The King's Speech as the Oscar winner in 2011, and went on to properly foresee 4 winners in 6 years. See the past predictions and nominees from all years pitted against each other.

After incorrect predictions in 2014 (Gravity instead of 12 Years a Slave) and 2016 (The Revenant instead of Spotlight), I tweaked the formula to correctly predict the winners of those years and this 2.0 version of the formula has been retroactively applied to all years. Unfortunatly the 2.0 algorithm failed to predict the 2017 winner Moonlight.

The formula has failed 3 years in a row, but hey, maybe this year it will get back on track! The race appears to be pretty tight with 5 of the 8 nominees having a decent chance of winning.

Data

(click column headings to re-sort)        
Film Prediction
Score
Critical Predictor Commercial Predictor Awards Predictor
The Favourite 30.53 9.72 10.39 9.92
Green Book 28.41 11.25 9.68 6.98
Roma 27.66 10.51 5.00 11.66
A Star is Born 26.38 10.03 8.46 7.89
BlacKKKlansman 26.30 7.96 10.08 7.76
Vice 20.67 1.76 10.10 8.30
Bohemian Rhapsody 19.69 6.68 8.44 4.07
Black Pather 9.66 6.75 -1.07 3.49
Film Score Critics Box Offfice Awards
The Favourite 30.53 9.72 10.39 9.92
Green Book 28.41 11.25 9.68 6.98
Roma 27.66 10.51 5.00 11.66
A Star is Born 26.38 10.03 8.46 7.89
BlacKKKlansman 26.30 7.96 10.08 7.76
Vice 20.67 1.76 10.10 8.30
Bohemian Rhapsody 19.69 6.68 8.44 4.07
Black Pather 9.66 6.75 -1.07 3.49
Film Score
The Favourite 30.53
Green Book 28.41
Roma 27.66
A Star is Born 26.38
BlacKKKlansman 26.30
Vice 20.67
Bohemian Rhapsody 19.69
Black Pather 9.66

Roma is the most highly decorated in awards this year, the critics love Green Book more than the other nominees, and The Favourite has a slightly more favorable box office indicator than the other films.

Prediction

BlacKKKlansman, A Star is Born, Roma, and Green Book all had strong showings this year. The scores are close enough that none of them would really be a surprise winner. That said, The Favourite will be the next Best Picture thanks to its good results in all categories.

Predicted Winner: The Favourite

     

More Best Picture Predictions

Oscar Prediction: 2017's Best Picture
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Oscar Prediction: 2016's Best Picture
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