Mr. Smarty Man

Hollywood Prediction

Oscar Prediction: 2017's Best Picture

Let's get it right this year and correctly predict the 90th Academy Awards Best Picture winner!

March 4, 2018

By Scott Croco

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Introduction

This is a prediction for the winner of the year's Best Picture Oscar using a mathematical formula. Inspired by data-centric entities like the Football Outsiders, BoxOfficeQuant, and the VFX Predictinator, I devised an algorithm to accurately forecast the annual Best Picture Oscar winner.

Prior to the 2011 Academy Awards, I cooked up a recipe using quantifiable data (box office, critical reviews, award nominations & wins) that successfully predicted the previous decade of Best Picture winners (with one exception, Crash in 2005). This formula then accurately projected The King's Speech as the Oscar winner in 2011, and went on to properly foresee 4 winners in 6 years. See the past predictions and nominees from all years pitted against each other.

After incorrect predictions in 2014 (Gravity instead of 12 Years a Slave) and 2016 (The Revenant instead of Spotlight), I tweaked the formula to correctly predict the winners of those years and this 2.0 version of the formula has been retroactively applied to all years. Unfortunatly the 2.0 algorithm failed to predict the 2017 winner Moonlight.

I can no longer pretend to think this prediction formula actually works. I'll be as surprised as you if it comes up accurate this year.

Data

(click column headings to re-sort)        
Film Prediction
Score
Critical Predictor Commercial Predictor Awards Predictor
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 33.29 12.69 10.03 10.06
The Shape of Water 32.23 8.45 9.93 13.34
Dunkirk 26.44 10.81 8.29 6.83
Lady Bird 26.44 8.87 10.09 7.48
Get Out 24.40 9.53 8.47 6.40
Call Me By Your Name 24.16 11.84 6.18 5.65
Phantom Thread 21.74 9.60 6.44 5.20
Darkest Hour 19.56 6.09 9.96 3.01
The Post 18.29 5.79 9.49 2.52
Film Score Critics Box Offfice Awards
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 33.29 12.69 10.03 10.06
The Shape of Water 32.23 8.45 9.93 13.34
Dunkirk 26.44 10.81 8.29 6.83
Lady Bird 26.44 8.87 10.09 7.48
Get Out 24.40 9.53 8.47 6.40
Call Me By Your Name 24.16 11.84 6.18 5.65
Phantom Thread 21.74 9.60 6.44 5.20
Darkest Hour 19.56 6.09 9.96 3.01
The Post 18.29 5.79 9.49 2.52
Film Score
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 33.29
The Shape of Water 32.23
Dunkirk 26.44
Lady Bird 26.44
Get Out 24.40
Call Me By Your Name 24.16
Phantom Thread 21.74
Darkest Hour 19.56
The Post 18.29

The Shape of Water has been cleaning up with awards and nominations this year, but Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri has a favorable box office indicator and better critics reactions.

Prediction

Out of 9 nominees, Lady Bird has the best box office indicator, which propels it to 4th place overall. Dunkirk didn't take any of the top individual scores, but an overall strong showing places it in 3rd. The Shape of Water holds the greatest awards indicator, landing it in 2nd place. And Three Billboards has both the top critical success indicator and the top spot overall. If this damn formula works this time, then Three Billboards will be the next Best Picture.

Predicted Winner: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

     

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