Mr. Smarty Man

Hollywood Prediction

Oscar Prediction: 2016's Best Picture

Will MSM's new 2.0 formula correctly predict the 89th Academy Awards Best Picture winner?

February 22, 2017

By Scott Croco

La La Land

Introduction

This is a prediction for the winner of the year's Best Picture Oscar using a mathematical formula. Inspired by data-centric entities like the Football Outsiders, BoxOfficeQuant, and the VFX Predictinator, I devised an algorithm to accurately forecast the annual Best Picture Oscar winner.

Prior to the 2011 Academy Awards, I cooked up a recipe using quantifiable data (box office, critical reviews, award nominations & wins) that successfully predicted the previous decade of Best Picture winners (with one exception, Crash in 2005). This formula then accurately projected The King's Speech as the Oscar winner in 2011, and went on to properly foresee 4 winners in 6 years. See the past predictions and nominees from all years pitted against each other.

After incorrect predictions in 2014 (Gravity instead of 12 Years a Slave) and 2016 (The Revenant instead of Spotlight), I tweaked the formula to correctly predict the winners of those years and this 2.0 version of the formula has been retroactively applied to all years. The MSM Formula 2.0 is the future!

Hopefully this will be the first in a long series of correct predictions in years to come using the new formula.

Data

(click column headings to re-sort)        
Film Prediction
Score
Critical Predictor Commercial Predictor Awards Predictor
La La Land 38.80 14.27 9.19 14.84
Manchester by the Sea 30.70 11.96 10.18 8.55
Moonlight 27.77 10.63 6.45 10.19
Arrival 27.39 11.24 9.23 6.42
Hacksaw Ridge 26.78 12.33 9.82 4.63
Lion 26.43 9.61 10.34 5.98
Hidden Figures 22.74 10.27 9.06 2.91
Fences 21.68 7.72 10.02 3.94
Hell or High Water 20.76 9.17 6.84 4.75
Film Score Critics Box Offfice Awards
La La Land 38.80 14.27 9.19 14.84
Manchester by the Sea 30.70 11.96 10.18 8.55
Moonlight 27.77 10.63 6.45 10.19
Arrival 27.39 11.24 9.23 6.42
Hacksaw Ridge 26.78 12.33 9.82 4.63
Lion 26.43 9.61 10.34 5.98
Hidden Figures 22.74 10.27 9.06 2.91
Fences 21.68 7.72 10.02 3.94
Hell or High Water 20.76 9.17 6.84 4.75
Film Score
La La Land 38.80
Manchester by the Sea 30.70
Moonlight 27.77
Arrival 27.39
Hacksaw Ridge 26.78
Lion 26.43
Hidden Figures 22.74
Fences 21.68
Hell or High Water 20.76

La La Land has collected awards and nominations this year at a higher rate than any film from any other years included in these annual predictions. The previous high was 14.22, set by Slumdog Millionaire. La La Land squeaks past it with 14.84.


La La Land has also set a new record for overall prediction score, with 38.80. The previous record holder was The Artist with 38.14.

Prediction

Out of 9 nominees, La La Land has the best critical and awards success indicators. Lion has the best box office indicator, but that was only good enough for 6th place. Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight finished strong, in 2nd and 3rd place respectively, making La La Land the big winner.

Predicted Winner: La La Land

     

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