Mr. Smarty Man

Hollywood Prediction

Best Picture of 2015 Oscar Prediction

Can MSM's data-based formula accurately predict the 2016 88th Academy Awards Best Picture winner?

February 28, 2016

By Scott Croco

Spotlight

[Update - October 22, 2016]
My original formula predicted The Revenant as the Best Picture winner for this year. You can see that original prediction here. The below prediction was made later using a revised MSM formula that properly projects Spotlight as the winner.

Introduction

This is an objective, formula-based prediction for the winner of the year's Best Picture Academy Award. Inspired by data-centric entities like the Football Outsiders, BoxOfficeQuant, and the VFX Predictinator, I devised an algorithm to accurately forecast the annual Best Picture Oscar winner.

Prior to the 2011 Academy Awards, I cooked up a recipe using quantifiable data (box office, critical reviews, award nominations & wins) that successfully predicted the previous decade of Best Picture winners (with one exception, Crash in 2005). This formula then accurately projected The King's Speech as the Oscar winner in 2011, and went on to properly foresee 4 winners in 6 years. See the past predictions and nominees from all years pitted against each other.

After incorrect predictions in 2014 (picked Gravity instead of 12 Years a Slave) and 2016 (picked The Revenant instead of Spotlight), I tweaked the formula to correctly predict the winners of those years and this 2.0 version of the formula has been retroactively applied to all years. The MSM Formula 2.0 is the future!

Now, let's rebuild this streak!

Data

(click column headings to re-sort)        
Film Prediction
Score
Critical Success Commercial Success Awards Success
The Big Short 26.72 9.43 9.80 6.99
Bridge of Spies 23.21 8.93 9.72 4.56
Brooklyn 23.38 8.75 10.36 3.77
Mad Max: Fury Road 29.79 12.63 9.33 7.33
The Martian 25.30 11.36 8.45 5.49
The Revenant 30.58 10.83 8.75 11.01
Room 24.31 12.69 5.88 5.24
Spotlight 32.05 12.51 10.32 8.72
Film Score Critics Box Offfice Awards
The Big Short 26.72 9.43 9.80 6.99
Bridge of Spies 23.21 8.93 9.72 4.56
Brooklyn 23.38 8.75 10.36 3.77
Mad Max: Fury Road 29.79 12.63 9.33 7.33
The Martian 25.30 11.36 8.45 5.49
The Revenant 30.58 10.83 8.75 11.01
Room 24.31 12.69 5.88 5.24
Spotlight 32.05 12.51 10.32 8.72
Film Score
The Big Short 26.72
Bridge of Spies 23.21
Brooklyn 23.38
Mad Max: Fury Road 29.79
The Martian 25.30
The Revenant 30.58
Room 24.31
Spotlight 32.05

Prediction

Of the 8 nominees, The Revenant has had by far the best awards season, but that isn't enough to propel it to the top of the Oscar heap. Spotlight's solid showing in all three categories makes it this year's predicted Oscar winner. Meanwhile Mad Max wins the bronze medal.

Predicted Winner: Spotlight

     

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