Mr. Smarty Man

Hollywood Prediction

Best Picture of 2015 Oscar Prediction

Can MSM's formula accurately predict the 2016 88th Academy Awards Best Picture winner?

February 28, 2016

By Scott Croco

The Revenant

[Update - October 10, 2016]
There's a new formula in town! Check out how The Revenant fared using this updated prediction tool. http://www.mrsmartyman.com/movies/prediction/2016-academy-awards.html

[Update - March 15, 2016]
Turned out that Spotlight won Best Picture. Looks like the formula needs tweaking, it was wrong 2 out of the last 3 years.

Introduction

This is an objective, formula-based prediction for the winner of the year's Best Picture Academy Award. Inspired by data-centric entities like the Football Outsiders, BoxOfficeQuant, and the VFX Predictinator, I devised an algorithm to accurately forecast the annual Best Picture Oscar winner.

Prior to the 2011 Academy Awards, I cooked up a recipe using quantifiable data (box office, critical reviews, award nominations & wins) that successfully predicted the previous decade of Best Picture winners (with one exception, Crash in 2005). This formula then accurately projected The King's Speech as the Oscar winner in 2011, and went on to properly foresee 4 winners in 6 years. See the past predictions and nominees from all years pitted against each other.

After incorrect predictions in 2014 (picked Gravity instead of 12 Years a Slave) and 2016 (picked The Revenant instead of Spotlight), I tweaked the formula to correctly predict the winners of those years and this 2.0 version of the formula has been retroactively applied to all years. The MSM Formula 2.0 is the future!

Now, let's rebuild this streak!

Data

(click column headings to re-sort)        
Film Prediction
Score
Critical Success Commercial Success Awards Success
The Big Short 8.62 2.89 1.25 4.48
Bridge of Spies 7.72 3.23 1.67 2.83
Brooklyn 6.74 3.45 0.83 2.46
Mad Max: Fury Road 14.79 4.44 3.54 6.81
The Martian 13.26 3.75 5.26 4.24
The Revenant 17.11 2.94 3.87 10.31
Room 7.97 4.12 0.30 3.56
Spotlight 10.82 4.34 0.89 5.59
Film Score Critics Box Offfice Awards
The Big Short 8.62 2.89 1.25 4.48
Bridge of Spies 7.72 3.23 1.67 2.83
Brooklyn 6.74 3.45 0.83 2.46
Mad Max: Fury Road 14.79 4.44 3.54 6.81
The Martian 13.26 3.75 5.26 4.24
The Revenant 17.11 2.94 3.87 10.31
Room 7.97 4.12 0.30 3.56
Spotlight 10.82 4.34 0.89 5.59
Film Score
The Big Short 8.62
Bridge of Spies 7.72
Brooklyn 6.74
Mad Max: Fury Road 14.79
The Martian 13.26
The Revenant 17.11
Room 7.97
Spotlight 10.82

Prediction

Of the 8 nominees, The Revenant has had by far the best awards season, and that should be enough to propel it to the top of the Oscar heap. The Revenant is this year's predicted Oscar winner. Mad Max and The Martian come in 2nd and 3rd, but this should be a no-brainer, probably don't need a formula to predict this one.

Predicted Winner: The Revenant

     

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