
[Update - October 10, 2016]
There's a new formula in town! Check out how The Revenant fared using this updated prediction tool. http://www.mrsmartyman.com/movies/prediction/2016-academy-awards.html [Update - March 15, 2016]
Turned out that Spotlight won Best Picture. Looks like the formula needs tweaking, it was wrong 2 out of the last 3 years.
Introduction
This is an objective, formula-based prediction for the winner of the year's Best Picture Academy Award. Inspired by data-centric entities like the Football Outsiders, BoxOfficeQuant, and the VFX Predictinator, I devised an algorithm to accurately forecast the annual Best Picture Oscar winner. Prior to the 2011 Academy Awards, I cooked up a recipe using quantifiable data (box office, critical reviews, award nominations & wins) that successfully predicted the previous decade of Best Picture winners (with one exception, Crash in 2005). This formula then accurately projected The King's Speech as the Oscar winner in 2011, and went on to properly foresee 4 winners in 6 years. See the past predictions and nominees from all years pitted against each other. After incorrect predictions in 2014 (picked Gravity instead of 12 Years a Slave) and 2016 (picked The Revenant instead of Spotlight), I tweaked the formula to correctly predict the winners of those years and this 2.0 version of the formula has been retroactively applied to all years. The MSM Formula 2.0 is the future! Now, let's rebuild this streak!Data
Film | Prediction Score |
Critical Success | Commercial Success | Awards Success |
---|---|---|---|---|
The Big Short | 8.62 | 2.89 | 1.25 | 4.48 |
Bridge of Spies | 7.72 | 3.23 | 1.67 | 2.83 |
Brooklyn | 6.74 | 3.45 | 0.83 | 2.46 |
Mad Max: Fury Road | 14.79 | 4.44 | 3.54 | 6.81 |
The Martian | 13.26 | 3.75 | 5.26 | 4.24 |
The Revenant | 17.11 | 2.94 | 3.87 | 10.31 |
Room | 7.97 | 4.12 | 0.30 | 3.56 |
Spotlight | 10.82 | 4.34 | 0.89 | 5.59 |
Film | Score | Critics | Box Offfice | Awards |
---|---|---|---|---|
The Big Short | 8.62 | 2.89 | 1.25 | 4.48 |
Bridge of Spies | 7.72 | 3.23 | 1.67 | 2.83 |
Brooklyn | 6.74 | 3.45 | 0.83 | 2.46 |
Mad Max: Fury Road | 14.79 | 4.44 | 3.54 | 6.81 |
The Martian | 13.26 | 3.75 | 5.26 | 4.24 |
The Revenant | 17.11 | 2.94 | 3.87 | 10.31 |
Room | 7.97 | 4.12 | 0.30 | 3.56 |
Spotlight | 10.82 | 4.34 | 0.89 | 5.59 |
Film | Score |
---|---|
The Big Short | 8.62 |
Bridge of Spies | 7.72 |
Brooklyn | 6.74 |
Mad Max: Fury Road | 14.79 |
The Martian | 13.26 |
The Revenant | 17.11 |
Room | 7.97 |
Spotlight | 10.82 |