Mr. Smarty Man

Hollywood Prediction

Best Picture of 2014 Oscar Prediction

See MSM's data-based formula accurately predict the 2015 87th Academy Awards Best Picture winner!

February 21, 2015

By Scott Croco

Birdman

[Update - October 23, 2016]
Updated to use MSM Formula 2.0.

[Update - March 18, 2015]
Of course Birdman won Best Picture. I'm a genius!

Introduction

This is an objective, formula-based prediction for the winner of the year's Best Picture Academy Award. Inspired by data-centric entities like the Football Outsiders, BoxOfficeQuant, and the VFX Predictinator, I devised an algorithm to accurately forecast the annual Best Picture Oscar winner.

Prior to the 2011 Academy Awards, I cooked up a recipe using quantifiable data (box office, critical reviews, award nominations & wins) that successfully predicted the previous decade of Best Picture winners (with one exception, Crash in 2005). This formula then accurately projected The King's Speech as the Oscar winner in 2011, and went on to properly foresee 4 winners in 6 years. See the past predictions and nominees from all years pitted against each other.

After incorrect predictions in 2014 (picked Gravity instead of 12 Years a Slave) and 2016 (picked The Revenant instead of Spotlight), I tweaked the formula to correctly predict the winners of those years and this 2.0 version of the formula has been retroactively applied to all years. The MSM Formula 2.0 is the future!

Now, after last year's miss (projected Gravity to win) let's see if this formula can work again!

Data

(click column headings to re-sort)        
Film Prediction
Score
Critical Success Commercial Success Awards Success
Birdman 32.77 11.48 10.29 10.50
Boyhood 29.89 12.75 6.88 10.27
The Grand Budapest Hotel 30.28 10.88 9.86 9.54
The Imitation Game 29.14 11.43 9.41 7.80
American Sniper 17.30 5.56 6.64 4.60
Whiplash 26.27 14.81 5.78 5.18
The Theory of Everything 24.72 7.80 10.35 6.07
Selma 22.72 9.41 10.05 2.75
Film Score Critics Box Offfice Awards
Birdman 32.77 11.48 10.29 10.50
Boyhood 29.89 12.75 6.88 10.27
The Grand Budapest Hotel 30.28 10.88 9.86 9.54
The Imitation Game 29.14 11.43 9.41 7.80
American Sniper 17.30 5.56 6.64 4.60
Whiplash 26.27 14.81 5.78 5.18
The Theory of Everything 24.72 7.80 10.35 6.07
Selma 22.72 9.41 10.05 2.75
Film Score
Birdman 32.77
Boyhood 29.89
The Grand Budapest Hotel 30.28
The Imitation Game 29.14
American Sniper 17.30
Whiplash 26.27
The Theory of Everything 24.72
Selma 22.72

Prediction

Of the 8 nominees, Birdman has had the best awards season, and that should be enough to propel it to the top of the Oscar heap. Birdman is this year's predicted Oscar winner. Boyhood and The Grand Budapest Hotel made it a close race, while the others are simply also-rans.

Predicted Winner: Birdman

     

More Best Picture Predictions

Best Picture of 2007 Oscar Prediction
Best Picture of 2007 Oscar Prediction
Here's your Best Picture winner for the 2008 80th Academy Awards.
Best Picture of 2015 Oscar Prediction
Best Picture of 2015 Oscar Prediction
Updated! - Can MSM's formula accurately predict the 2016 88th Academy Awards Best Picture winner?

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