Mr. Smarty Man

Hollywood Prediction

Best Picture of 2013 Oscar Prediction

MSM's data-based formula attempts to predict the 2014 86th Academy Awards Best Picture winner!

March 1, 2014

By Scott Croco

12 Years a Slave

[Update - October 10, 2016]
My original formula predicted Gravity as the Best Picture winner for this year. You can see that original prediction here. The below prediction was made later using a revised formula that properly projects 12 Years a Slave as the winner.

Introduction

This is an objective, formula-based prediction for the winner of the year's Best Picture Academy Award. Inspired by data-centric entities like the Football Outsiders, BoxOfficeQuant, and the VFX Predictinator, I devised an algorithm to accurately forecast the annual Best Picture Oscar winner.

Prior to the 2011 Academy Awards, I cooked up a recipe using quantifiable data (box office, critical reviews, award nominations & wins) that successfully predicted the previous decade of Best Picture winners (with one exception, Crash in 2005). This formula then accurately projected The King's Speech as the Oscar winner in 2011, and went on to properly foresee 4 winners in 6 years. See the past predictions and nominees from all years pitted against each other.

After incorrect predictions in 2014 (picked Gravity instead of 12 Years a Slave) and 2016 (picked The Revenant instead of Spotlight), I tweaked the formula to correctly predict the winners of those years and this 2.0 version of the formula has been retroactively applied to all years. The MSM Formula 2.0 is the future!

Let's keep this streak alive!

Data

(click column headings to re-sort)        
Film Prediction
Score
Critical Success Commercial Success Awards Success
Gravity 31.78 12.75 7.99 11.04
12 Years a Slave 35.66 13.84 10.10 11.23
American Hustle 28.28 8.27 8.99 11.03
Captain Phillips 25.57 10.45 9.03 5.58
The Wolf of Wall Street 27.13 11.63 9.42 6.08
Her 24.84 12.69 6.70 4.95
Dallas Buyers Club 23.26 11.17 6.75 4.83
Nebraska 22.52 10.15 6.17 5.70
Philomena 24.63 9.48 10.39 4.75
Film Score Critics Box Offfice Awards
Gravity 31.78 12.75 7.99 11.04
12 Years a Slave 35.66 13.84 10.10 11.23
American Hustle 28.28 8.27 8.99 11.03
Captain Phillips 25.57 10.45 9.03 5.58
The Wolf of Wall Street 27.13 11.63 9.42 6.08
Her 24.84 12.69 6.70 4.95
Dallas Buyers Club 23.26 11.17 6.75 4.83
Nebraska 22.52 10.15 6.17 5.70
Philomena 24.63 9.48 10.39 4.75
Film Score
Gravity 31.78
12 Years a Slave 35.66
American Hustle 28.28
Captain Phillips 25.57
The Wolf of Wall Street 27.13
Her 24.84
Dallas Buyers Club 23.26
Nebraska 22.52
Philomena 24.63

Prediction

Of the 9 nominees, no film had better critical response than 12 Years a Slave nor fared better during this awards season, and only Philomena has better box office. Making 12 Years a Slave this year's predicted Oscar winner. Gravity placed, mainly thanks to its critical acclaim and awards season prestige; American Hustle showed, mainly on the strength of its awards season success. But 12 Years a Slave will be awarded the big prize of the night.

Predicted Winner: 12 Years a Slave

     

More Best Picture Predictions

Best Picture of 2007 Oscar Prediction
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Updated! - Can MSM's formula accurately predict the 2016 88th Academy Awards Best Picture winner?

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