Mr. Smarty Man

Hollywood Prediction

Best Picture of 2013 Oscar Prediction

MSM's formula attempts to predict the 2014 86th Academy Awards Best Picture winner!

March 1, 2014

By Scott Croco

Gravity

[Update - October 10, 2016]
There's a new formula in town! Check out how Gravity fared using this updated prediction tool. http://www.mrsmartyman.com/movies/prediction/2014-academy-awards.html

[Update - February 21, 2015]
Gravity did not win Best Picture. 12 Years a Slave received that honor.

Introduction

This is an objective, formula-based prediction for the winner of the year's Best Picture Academy Award. Inspired by data-centric entities like the Football Outsiders, BoxOfficeQuant, and the VFX Predictinator, I devised an algorithm to accurately forecast the annual Best Picture Oscar winner.

Prior to the 2011 Academy Awards, I cooked up a recipe using quantifiable data (box office, critical reviews, award nominations & wins) that successfully predicted the previous decade of Best Picture winners (with one exception, Crash in 2005). This formula then accurately projected The King's Speech as the Oscar winner in 2011, and went on to properly foresee 4 winners in 6 years. See the past predictions and nominees from all years pitted against each other.

After incorrect predictions in 2014 (picked Gravity instead of 12 Years a Slave) and 2016 (picked The Revenant instead of Spotlight), I tweaked the formula to correctly predict the winners of those years and this 2.0 version of the formula has been retroactively applied to all years. The MSM Formula 2.0 is the future!

Let's keep this streak alive!

Data

(click column headings to re-sort)        
Film Prediction
Score
Critical Success Commercial Success Awards Success
Gravity 19.77 4.54 4.97 10.26
12 Years a Slave 13.80 4.70 1.13 7.97
American Hustle 13.67 3.05 3.32 7.31
Captain Phillips 9.42 3.37 2.46 3.58
The Wolf of Wall Street 8.77 2.48 2.60 3.69
Her 8.27 4.12 0.55 3.60
Dallas Buyers Club 7.11 3.97 0.57 2.57
Nebraska 6.94 3.49 0.38 3.06
Philomena 6.70 3.31 0.76 2.64
Film Score Critics Box Offfice Awards
Gravity 19.77 4.54 4.97 10.26
12 Years a Slave 13.80 4.70 1.13 7.97
American Hustle 13.67 3.05 3.32 7.31
Captain Phillips 9.42 3.37 2.46 3.58
The Wolf of Wall Street 8.77 2.48 2.60 3.69
Her 8.27 4.12 0.55 3.60
Dallas Buyers Club 7.11 3.97 0.57 2.57
Nebraska 6.94 3.49 0.38 3.06
Philomena 6.70 3.31 0.76 2.64
Film Score
Gravity 19.77
12 Years a Slave 13.80
American Hustle 13.67
Captain Phillips 9.42
The Wolf of Wall Street 8.77
Her 8.27
Dallas Buyers Club 7.11
Nebraska 6.94
Philomena 6.70

Prediction

Of the 9 nominees, no film had better box office than Gravity nor fared better during this awards season, and only 12 Years a Slave has better critical reviews. Making Gravity this year's predicted Oscar winner. 12 Years a Slave placed, mainly thanks to its critical acclaim and awards season prestige; American Hustle showed, with solid scores all around. But Gravity will be awarded the big prize of the night.

Predicted Winner: Gravity

     

More Best Picture Predictions

Best Picture of 2007 Oscar Prediction
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Here's your Best Picture winner for the 2008 80th Academy Awards.
Best Picture of 2015 Oscar Prediction
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Updated! - Can MSM's formula accurately predict the 2016 88th Academy Awards Best Picture winner?

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