Mr. Smarty Man

Hollywood Prediction

Best Picture of 2012 Oscar Prediction

I've got your 2013 85th Academy Awards Best Picture winner right here!

February 22, 2013

By Scott Croco

Argo

[Update - October 24, 2016]
Updated to use MSM Formula 2.0.

[Update - March 11, 2013]
Of course Argo won Best Picture. I'm a genius!

Introduction

This is an objective, formula-based prediction for the winner of the year's Best Picture Academy Award. Inspired by data-centric entities like the Football Outsiders, BoxOfficeQuant, and the VFX Predictinator, I devised an algorithm to accurately forecast the annual Best Picture Oscar winner.

Prior to the 2011 Academy Awards, I cooked up a recipe using quantifiable data (box office, critical reviews, award nominations & wins) that successfully predicted the previous decade of Best Picture winners (with one exception, Crash in 2005). This formula then accurately projected The King's Speech as the Oscar winner in 2011, and went on to properly foresee 4 winners in 6 years. See the past predictions and nominees from all years pitted against each other.

After incorrect predictions in 2014 (picked Gravity instead of 12 Years a Slave) and 2016 (picked The Revenant instead of Spotlight), I tweaked the formula to correctly predict the winners of those years and this 2.0 version of the formula has been retroactively applied to all years. The MSM Formula 2.0 is the future!

Now, let's keep this streak alive!

Data

(click column headings to re-sort)        
Film Prediction
Score
Critical Success Commercial Success Awards Success
Argo 31.65 11.05 9.21 10.89
Lincoln 27.42 9.24 8.51 9.66
Django Unchained 27.21 13.25 8.79 5.17
Life of Pi 28.76 11.43 9.35 7.48
Zero Dark Thirty 24.69 7.91 9.36 7.42
Silver Linings Playbook 28.22 10.45 9.15 8.12
Les Miserables 21.97 6.55 8.95 6.48
Amour 22.40 11.05 5.29 5.56
Beasts of the Southern Wild 15.74 5.37 5.88 4.48
Film Score Critics Box Offfice Awards
Argo 31.65 11.05 9.21 10.89
Lincoln 27.42 9.24 8.51 9.66
Django Unchained 27.21 13.25 8.79 5.17
Life of Pi 28.76 11.43 9.35 7.48
Zero Dark Thirty 24.69 7.91 9.36 7.42
Silver Linings Playbook 28.22 10.45 9.15 8.12
Les Miserables 21.97 6.55 8.95 6.48
Amour 22.40 11.05 5.29 5.56
Beasts of the Southern Wild 15.74 5.37 5.88 4.48
Film Score
Argo 31.65
Lincoln 27.42
Django Unchained 27.21
Life of Pi 28.76
Zero Dark Thirty 24.69
Silver Linings Playbook 28.22
Les Miserables 21.97
Amour 22.40
Beasts of the Southern Wild 15.74

Prediction

Argo has performed strongly on the awards circuit, which vaults it to the top of the heap and makes it the predicted winner this year. Life of Pi is the next closest competitor, thanks to its solid critical score and box office score. Django Unchained is the best reviewed film in the bunch, and Zero Dark Thirty has the best box office score. But Argo will get the big prize.

Predicted Winner: Argo

     

More Best Picture Predictions

Best Picture of 2007 Oscar Prediction
Best Picture of 2007 Oscar Prediction
Here's your Best Picture winner for the 2008 80th Academy Awards.
Best Picture of 2015 Oscar Prediction
Best Picture of 2015 Oscar Prediction
Updated! - Can MSM's formula accurately predict the 2016 88th Academy Awards Best Picture winner?

Hollywood Showdowns

Sam Raimi vs. Gore Verbinski
Sam Raimi vs. Gore Verbinski
Who has had the more successful directing career?
Jaws vs. Jurassic Park
Jaws vs. Jurassic Park
Which franchise has been more successful?
Ridley Scott vs. The Coen bros.
Ridley Scott vs. The Coen bros.
Who has had the more successful directing career?