Mr. Smarty Man

Hollywood Prediction

Best Picture of 2011 Oscar Prediction

Trying to win your office pool? Here's the winner of the 2012 84th Academy Awards Best Picture.

February 24, 2012

By Scott Croco

The Artist

[Update - October 25, 2016]
Updated to use MSM Formula 2.0.

[Update - March 4, 2012]
The Artist did indeed win Best Picture.

Introduction

This is an objective, formula-based prediction for the winner of the year's Best Picture Academy Award. Inspired by data-centric entities like the Football Outsiders, BoxOfficeQuant, and the VFX Predictinator, I devised an algorithm to accurately forecast the annual Best Picture Oscar winner.

Prior to the 2011 Academy Awards, I cooked up a recipe using quantifiable data (box office, critical reviews, award nominations & wins) that successfully predicted the previous decade of Best Picture winners (with one exception, Crash in 2005). This formula then accurately projected The King's Speech as the Oscar winner in 2011, and went on to properly foresee 4 winners in 6 years. See the past predictions and nominees from all years pitted against each other.

After incorrect predictions in 2014 (picked Gravity instead of 12 Years a Slave) and 2016 (picked The Revenant instead of Spotlight), I tweaked the formula to correctly predict the winners of those years and this 2.0 version of the formula has been retroactively applied to all years. The MSM Formula 2.0 is the future!

Data

(click column headings to re-sort)        
Film Prediction
Score
Critical Success Commercial Success Awards Success
The Artist 38.14 14.08 10.42 13.64
Hugo 29.64 11.24 9.91 8.00
The Descendants 25.73 8.33 9.46 7.44
Midnight in Paris 24.88 9.48 9.85 5.54
Moneyball 24.67 9.05 9.47 5.65
The Help 20.81 8.17 8.40 4.24
The Tree of Life 14.01 3.85 6.04 4.13
War Horse 15.72 3.80 9.40 2.52
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close 9.39 -3.25 10.37 1.77
Film Score Critics Box Offfice Awards
The Artist 38.14 14.08 10.42 13.64
Hugo 29.64 11.24 9.91 8.00
The Descendants 25.73 8.33 9.46 7.44
Midnight in Paris 24.88 9.48 9.85 5.54
Moneyball 24.67 9.05 9.47 5.65
The Help 20.81 8.17 8.40 4.24
The Tree of Life 14.01 3.85 6.04 4.13
War Horse 15.72 3.80 9.40 2.52
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close 9.39 -3.25 10.37 1.77
Film Score
The Artist 38.14
Hugo 29.64
The Descendants 25.73
Midnight in Paris 24.88
Moneyball 24.67
The Help 20.81
The Tree of Life 14.01
War Horse 15.72
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close 9.39

Prediction

The Artist is the frontrunner, and it seems a forgone conclusion that it will win. The Artist has been scooping up awards by the barrel, its critical scores are excellent, and it's box office take is very good for a B&W silent film. Hugo is the main competition, but it's really not close. The Artist sweeps all three scoring categories and walks away with it

Predicted Winner: The Artist

     

More Best Picture Predictions

Best Picture of 2007 Oscar Prediction
Best Picture of 2007 Oscar Prediction
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