Mr. Smarty Man

Hollywood Prediction

Best Picture of 2010 Oscar Prediction

Here's the predicted winner of the 2011 83rd Academy Awards Best Picture.

February 24, 2011

By Scott Croco

The King's Speech

[Update - October 25, 2016]
Updated to use MSM Formula 2.0.

[Update - February 28, 2011]
The King's Speech did win Best Picture, as predicted!

Introduction

This is an objective, formula-based prediction for the winner of the year's Best Picture Academy Award. Inspired by data-centric entities like the Football Outsiders, BoxOfficeQuant, and the VFX Predictinator, I devised an algorithm to accurately forecast the annual Best Picture Oscar winner.

Prior to the 2011 Academy Awards, I cooked up a recipe using quantifiable data (box office, critical reviews, award nominations & wins) that successfully predicted the previous decade of Best Picture winners (with one exception, Crash in 2005). This formula then accurately projected The King's Speech as the Oscar winner in 2011, and went on to properly foresee 4 winners in 6 years. See the past predictions and nominees from all years pitted against each other.

After incorrect predictions in 2014 (picked Gravity instead of 12 Years a Slave) and 2016 (picked The Revenant instead of Spotlight), I tweaked the formula to correctly predict the winners of those years and this 2.0 version of the formula has been retroactively applied to all years. The MSM Formula 2.0 is the future!

Data

(click column headings to re-sort)        
Film Prediction
Score
Critical Success Commercial Success Awards Success
The King's Speech 36.57 13.72 9.22 13.13
The Social Network 33.43 11.96 9.16 11.80
Inception 30.51 15.37 7.87 7.27
Toy Story 3 23.50 16.20 3.45 3.85
True Grit 26.90 11.60 8.58 6.22
Black Swan 29.33 13.31 9.01 6.52
The Fighter 28.18 10.64 9.25 7.79
127 Hours 22.29 10.57 6.32 5.40
The Kids Are All Right 18.12 6.15 6.52 4.95
Winter's Bone 16.54 6.81 5.48 4.25
Film Score Critics Box Offfice Awards
The King's Speech 36.57 13.72 9.22 13.13
The Social Network 33.43 11.96 9.16 11.80
Inception 30.51 15.37 7.87 7.27
Toy Story 3 23.50 16.20 3.45 3.85
True Grit 26.90 11.60 8.58 6.22
Black Swan 29.33 13.31 9.01 6.52
The Fighter 28.18 10.64 9.25 7.79
127 Hours 22.29 10.57 6.32 5.40
The Kids Are All Right 18.12 6.15 6.52 4.95
Winter's Bone 16.54 6.81 5.48 4.25
Film Score
The King's Speech 36.57
The Social Network 33.43
Inception 30.51
Toy Story 3 23.50
True Grit 26.90
Black Swan 29.33
The Fighter 28.18
127 Hours 22.29
The Kids Are All Right 18.12
Winter's Bone 16.54

Prediction

The King's Speech is the frontrunner, but I wouldn't entirely count out The Social Network. The King's Speech has more Oscar nominations than the other nominees, it won the DGA award, its critical scores are solid, and it's box office take is respectable. However, The Social Network performed well at the Golden Globes, also had a decent box office, and is also rated well by critics.

Predicted Winner: The King's Speech

     

More Best Picture Predictions

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Here's your Best Picture winner for the 2008 80th Academy Awards.
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