Mr. Smarty Man

Hollywood Prediction

Best Picture of 2009 Oscar Prediction

Here's the winner of the 2010 82nd Academy Awards Best Picture.

February 24, 2011

By Scott Croco

The Hurt Locker

[Update - October 25, 2016]
Updated to use MSM Formula 2.0.

Introduction

This is an objective, formula-based prediction for the winner of the year's Best Picture Academy Award. Inspired by data-centric entities like the Football Outsiders, BoxOfficeQuant, and the VFX Predictinator, I devised an algorithm to accurately forecast the annual Best Picture Oscar winner.

Prior to the 2011 Academy Awards, I cooked up a recipe using quantifiable data (box office, critical reviews, award nominations & wins) that successfully predicted the previous decade of Best Picture winners (with one exception, Crash in 2005). This formula then accurately projected The King's Speech as the Oscar winner in 2011, and went on to properly foresee 4 winners in 6 years. See the past predictions and nominees from all years pitted against each other.

After incorrect predictions in 2014 (picked Gravity instead of 12 Years a Slave) and 2016 (picked The Revenant instead of Spotlight), I tweaked the formula to correctly predict the winners of those years and this 2.0 version of the formula has been retroactively applied to all years. The MSM Formula 2.0 is the future!

Data

(click column headings to re-sort)        
Film Prediction
Score
Critical Success Commercial Success Awards Success
The Hurt Locker 29.96 9.96 6.23 13.27
Up 25.99 13.72 7.88 4.39
Avatar 19.01 11.55 0.74 6.73
Inglourious Basterds 28.52 11.08 9.28 8.16
Up in the Air 27.51 9.00 9.43 8.58
District 9 25.24 11.67 9.35 3.72
Precious 24.76 7.24 10.11 6.91
The Blind Side 15.71 5.09 8.15 1.97
An Education 16.41 6.81 5.91 3.68
A Serious Man 13.81 4.64 5.67 3.00
Film Score Critics Box Offfice Awards
The Hurt Locker 29.96 9.96 6.23 13.27
Up 25.99 13.72 7.88 4.39
Avatar 19.01 11.55 0.74 6.73
Inglourious Basterds 28.52 11.08 9.28 8.16
Up in the Air 27.51 9.00 9.43 8.58
District 9 25.24 11.67 9.35 3.72
Precious 24.76 7.24 10.11 6.91
The Blind Side 15.71 5.09 8.15 1.97
An Education 16.41 6.81 5.91 3.68
A Serious Man 13.81 4.64 5.67 3.00
Film Score
The Hurt Locker 29.96
Up 25.99
Avatar 19.01
Inglourious Basterds 28.52
Up in the Air 27.51
District 9 25.24
Precious 24.76
The Blind Side 15.71
An Education 16.41
A Serious Man 13.81

Prediction

I recall most folks thinking this was a race between The Hurt Locker and Avatar, with a possible upset by Inglourious Basterds. Now we can see that Avatar didn't really have a chance. The MSM prediction was for The Hurt Locker, on the strength of very good showings with other, non-Oscar, awards and nominations.

Predicted Winner: The Hurt Locker

     

More Best Picture Predictions

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