Mr. Smarty Man

Hollywood Prediction

Best Picture of 2008 Oscar Prediction

Here's the winner of the 2009 81st Academy Awards Best Picture.

February 24, 2011

By Scott Croco

Slumdog Millionaire

[Update - October 25, 2016]
Updated to use MSM Formula 2.0.

Introduction

This is an objective, formula-based prediction for the winner of the year's Best Picture Academy Award. Inspired by data-centric entities like the Football Outsiders, BoxOfficeQuant, and the VFX Predictinator, I devised an algorithm to accurately forecast the annual Best Picture Oscar winner.

Prior to the 2011 Academy Awards, I cooked up a recipe using quantifiable data (box office, critical reviews, award nominations & wins) that successfully predicted the previous decade of Best Picture winners (with one exception, Crash in 2005). This formula then accurately projected The King's Speech as the Oscar winner in 2011, and went on to properly foresee 4 winners in 6 years. See the past predictions and nominees from all years pitted against each other.

After incorrect predictions in 2014 (picked Gravity instead of 12 Years a Slave) and 2016 (picked The Revenant instead of Spotlight), I tweaked the formula to correctly predict the winners of those years and this 2.0 version of the formula has been retroactively applied to all years. The MSM Formula 2.0 is the future!

Data

(click column headings to re-sort)        
Film Prediction
Score
Critical Success Commercial Success Awards Success
Slumdog Millionaire 36.48 12.93 8.82 14.22
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button 27.58 8.41 9.04 10.13
Milk 28.18 9.60 10.35 7.73
Frost/Nixon 23.41 9.79 6.46 6.67
The Reader 20.65 4.37 10.30 5.47
The Dark Knight 22.03 16.57 0.96 4.50
Film Score Critics Box Offfice Awards
Slumdog Millionaire 36.48 12.93 8.82 14.22
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button 27.58 8.41 9.04 10.13
Milk 28.18 9.60 10.35 7.73
Frost/Nixon 23.41 9.79 6.46 6.67
The Reader 20.65 4.37 10.30 5.47
The Dark Knight 22.03 16.57 0.96 4.50
Film Score
Slumdog Millionaire 36.48
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button 27.58
Milk 28.18
Frost/Nixon 23.41
The Reader 20.65
The Dark Knight 22.03

Prediction

Slumdog Millionaire won the award, my prediction here is just a confirmation of that fact. And of course, The Dark Knight was not actually nominated, but if it was, it would have been deserving.

Predicted Winner: Slumdog Millionaire

     

More Best Picture Predictions

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