Mr. Smarty Man

Hollywood Prediction

Best Picture of 2007 Oscar Prediction

Here's your Best Picture winner for the 2008 80th Academy Awards.

October 25, 2016

By Scott Croco

No Country For Old Men

Introduction

This is an objective, formula-based prediction for the winner of the year's Best Picture Academy Award. Inspired by data-centric entities like the Football Outsiders, BoxOfficeQuant, and the VFX Predictinator, I devised an algorithm to accurately forecast the annual Best Picture Oscar winner.

Prior to the 2011 Academy Awards, I cooked up a recipe using quantifiable data (box office, critical reviews, award nominations & wins) that successfully predicted the previous decade of Best Picture winners (with one exception, Crash in 2005). This formula then accurately projected The King's Speech as the Oscar winner in 2011, and went on to properly foresee 4 winners in 6 years. See the past predictions and nominees from all years pitted against each other.

After incorrect predictions in 2014 (picked Gravity instead of 12 Years a Slave) and 2016 (picked The Revenant instead of Spotlight), I tweaked the formula to correctly predict the winners of those years and this 2.0 version of the formula has been retroactively applied to all years. The MSM Formula 2.0 is the future!

Data

(click column headings to re-sort)        
Film Prediction
Score
Critical Success Commercial Success Awards Success
No Country For Old Men 35.17 12.69 9.47 12.50
There Will Be Blood 29.72 12.03 10.17 7.52
Michael Clayton 25.76 7.36 9.99 7.91
Atonement 25.61 8.52 9.95 6.63
Juno 24.45 9.84 8.77 5.84
Film Score Critics Box Offfice Awards
No Country For Old Men 35.17 12.69 9.47 12.50
There Will Be Blood 29.72 12.03 10.17 7.52
Michael Clayton 25.76 7.36 9.99 7.91
Atonement 25.61 8.52 9.95 6.63
Juno 24.45 9.84 8.77 5.84
Film Score
No Country For Old Men 35.17
There Will Be Blood 29.72
Michael Clayton 25.76
Atonement 25.61
Juno 24.45

Prediction

No Country For Old Men won the award, my prediction here is just a confirmation of that fact. Further evidence of the MSM Formula 2.0's predictive power.

Predicted Winner: No Country For Old Men

     

More Best Picture Predictions

Best Picture of 2015 Oscar Prediction
Best Picture of 2015 Oscar Prediction
Updated! - Can MSM's formula accurately predict the 2016 88th Academy Awards Best Picture winner?
Best Picture of 2014 Oscar Prediction
Best Picture of 2014 Oscar Prediction
See MSM's formula accurately predict the 2015 87th Academy Awards Best Picture winner!

Hollywood Showdowns

Sam Raimi vs. Gore Verbinski
Sam Raimi vs. Gore Verbinski
Who has had the more successful directing career?
Jaws vs. Jurassic Park
Jaws vs. Jurassic Park
Which franchise has been more successful?
Ridley Scott vs. The Coen bros.
Ridley Scott vs. The Coen bros.
Who has had the more successful directing career?