Mr. Smarty Man

Hollywood Prediction

Academy Award Predictions

updated: March 4, 2018

The results on this page reflect the output of MSM prediction formula v2.0. Unfortunately v1.0 did not properly predict the winners of the 86th and 88th Academy Awards, so I revamped it in October 2016. Now we can get this thing back on track!

Best Picture predictions: 9-1

Year Event Predicted Actual      
2018 90th Academy Awards Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri ? Details
2017 89th Academy Awards La La Land Moonlight Details
2016 88th Academy Awards Spotlight Spotlight Details
2015 87th Academy Awards Birdman Birdman Details
2014 86th Academy Awards 12 Years A Slave 12 Years A Slave Details
2013 85th Academy Awards Argo Argo Details
2012 84th Academy Awards The Artist The Artist Details
2011 83rd Academy Awards The King's Speech The King's Speech Details
2010 82nd Academy Awards The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker Details
2009 81st Academy Awards Slumdog Millionaire Slumdog Millionaire Details
2008 80th Academy Awards No Country For Old Men No Country For Old Men Details
Year Predicted Actual      
2018 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri ? Details
2017 La La Land Moonlight Details
2016 Spotlight Spotlight Details
2015 Birdman Birdman Details
2014 12 Years A Slave 12 Years A Slave Details
2013 Argo Argo Details
2012 The Artist The Artist Details
2011 The King's Speech The King's Speech Details
2010 The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker Details
2009 Slumdog Millionaire Slumdog Millionaire Details
2008 No Country For Old Men No Country For Old Men Details
Year Predicted      
2018 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Details
2017 La La Land Details
2016 Spotlight Details
2015 Birdman Details
2014 12 Years A Slave Details
2013 Argo Details
2012 The Artist Details
2011 The King's Speech Details
2010 The Hurt Locker Details
2009 Slumdog Millionaire Details
2008 No Country For Old Men Details

Some interesting tidbits emerge when listing all the nominees together. For example, the nominee that had the best chance to win, but didn't, was The Social Network and the nominee with the worst chance to win was Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.


All Nominees:          (click any heading to re-sort the table)

Film Year Score CS BOS AS PWin Won
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 2017 33.29 12.69 10.03 10.06 X
The Shape of Water 2017 32.23 8.45 9.93 13.34
Dunkirk 2017 26.44 10.81 8.29 6.83
Lady Bird 2017 26.44 8.87 10.09 7.48
Get Out 2017 24.40 9.53 8.47 6.40
Call Me By Your Name 2017 24.16 11.84 6.18 5.65
Phantom Thread 2017 21.74 9.60 6.44 5.20
Darkest Hour 2017 19.56 6.09 9.96 3.01
The Post 2017 18.29 5.79 9.49 2.52
La La Land 2016 38.80 14.27 9.19 14.84 X
Manchester by the Sea 2016 30.70 11.96 10.18 8.55
Moonlight 2016 27.77 10.63 6.45 10.19 X
Arrival 2016 27.39 11.24 9.23 6.42
Hacksaw Ridge 2016 26.78 12.33 9.82 4.63
Lion 2016 26.43 9.61 10.34 5.98
Hidden Figures 2016 22.74 10.27 9.06 2.91
Fences 2016 21.68 7.72 10.02 3.94
Hell or High Water 2016 20.76 9.17 6.84 4.75
The Big Short 2015 26.72 9.43 9.80 6.99
Bridge of Spies 2015 23.21 8.93 9.72 4.56
Brooklyn 2015 23.38 8.75 10.36 3.77
Mad Max: Fury Road 2015 29.79 12.63 9.33 7.33
The Martian 2015 25.30 11.36 8.45 5.49
The Revenant 2015 30.58 10.83 8.75 11.01
Room 2015 24.31 12.69 5.88 5.24
Spotlight 2015 32.05 12.51 10.32 8.72 X X
Birdman 2014 32.77 11.48 10.29 10.50 X X
Boyhood 2014 29.89 12.75 6.88 10.27
The Grand Budapest Hotel 2014 30.28 10.88 9.86 9.54
The Imitation Game 2014 29.14 11.43 9.41 7.80
American Sniper 2014 17.30 5.56 6.64 4.60
Whiplash 2014 26.27 14.81 5.78 5.18
The Theory of Everything 2014 24.72 7.80 10.35 6.07
Selma 2014 22.72 9.41 10.05 2.75
Gravity 2013 31.78 12.75 7.99 11.04
12 Years a Slave 2013 35.66 13.84 10.10 11.23 X X
American Hustle 2013 28.28 8.27 8.99 11.03
Captain Phillips 2013 25.57 10.45 9.03 5.58
The Wolf of Wall Street 2013 27.13 11.63 9.42 6.08
Her 2013 24.84 12.69 6.70 4.95
Dallas Buyers Club 2013 23.26 11.17 6.75 4.83
Nebraska 2013 22.52 10.15 6.17 5.70
Philomena 2013 24.63 9.48 10.39 4.75
Argo 2012 31.65 11.05 9.21 10.89 X X
Lincoln 2012 27.42 9.24 8.51 9.66
Django Unchained 2012 27.21 13.25 8.79 5.17
Life of Pi 2012 28.76 11.43 9.35 7.48
Zero Dark Thirty 2012 24.69 7.91 9.36 7.42
Silver Linings Playbook 2012 28.22 10.45 9.15 8.12
Les Miserables 2012 21.97 6.55 8.95 6.48
Amour 2012 22.40 11.05 5.29 5.56
Beasts of the Southern Wild 2012 15.74 5.37 5.88 4.48
The Artist 2011 38.14 14.08 10.42 13.64 X X
Hugo 2011 29.64 11.24 9.91 8.00
The Descendants 2011 25.73 8.33 9.46 7.44
Midnight in Paris 2011 24.88 9.48 9.85 5.54
Moneyball 2011 24.67 9.05 9.47 5.65
The Help 2011 20.81 8.17 8.40 4.24
The Tree of Life 2011 14.01 3.85 6.04 4.13
War Horse 2011 15.72 3.80 9.40 2.52
Extremely Loud, Incredibly Close 2011 9.39 -3.25 10.37 1.77
The King's Speech 2010 36.57 13.72 9.22 13.13 X X
The Social Network 2010 33.43 11.96 9.16 11.80
Inception 2010 30.51 15.37 7.87 7.27
Toy Story 3 2010 23.50 16.20 3.45 3.85
True Grit 2010 26.90 11.60 8.58 6.22
Black Swan 2010 29.33 13.31 9.01 6.52
The Fighter 2010 28.18 10.64 9.25 7.79
127 Hours 2010 22.29 10.57 6.32 5.40
The Kids Are All Right 2010 18.12 6.15 6.52 4.95
Winter's Bone 2010 16.54 6.81 5.48 4.25
The Hurt Locker 2009 29.96 9.96 6.23 13.27 X X
Up 2009 25.99 13.72 7.88 4.39
Avatar 2009 19.01 11.55 0.74 6.73
Inglourious Basterds 2009 28.52 11.08 9.28 8.16
Up in the Air 2009 27.51 9.00 9.43 8.58
District 9 2009 25.24 11.67 9.35 3.72
Precious 2009 24.76 7.24 10.11 6.91
The Blind Side 2009 15.71 5.09 8.15 1.97
An Education 2009 16.41 6.81 5.91 3.68
A Serious Man 2009 13.81 4.64 5.67 3.00
Slumdog Millionaire 2008 36.48 12.93 8.82 14.22 X X
Curious Case of Benjamin Button 2008 27.58 8.41 9.04 10.13
Milk 2008 28.18 9.60 10.35 7.73
Frost/Nixon 2008 23.41 9.79 6.46 6.67
The Reader 2008 20.65 4.37 10.30 5.47
The Dark Knight * 2008 22.03 16.57 0.96 4.50
No Country For Old Men 2007 35.17 12.69 9.47 12.50 X X
There Will Be Blood 2007 29.72 12.03 10.17 7.52
Michael Clayton 2007 25.76 7.36 9.99 7.91
Atonement 2007 25.61 8.52 9.95 6.63
Juno 2007 24.45 9.84 8.77 5.84
Film Year Score CS BOS AS
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 2017 33.29 12.69 10.03 10.06
The Shape of Water 2017 32.23 8.45 9.93 13.34
Dunkirk 2017 26.44 10.81 8.29 6.83
Lady Bird 2017 26.44 8.87 10.09 7.48
Get Out 2017 24.40 9.53 8.47 6.40
Call Me By Your Name 2017 24.16 11.84 6.18 5.65
Phantom Thread 2017 21.74 9.60 6.44 5.20
Darkest Hour 2017 19.56 6.09 9.96 3.01
The Post 2017 18.29 5.79 9.49 2.52
La La Land 2016 38.80 14.27 9.19 14.84
Manchester by the Sea 2016 30.70 11.96 10.18 8.55
Moonlight 2016 27.77 10.63 6.45 10.19
Arrival 2016 27.39 11.24 9.23 6.42
Hacksaw Ridge 2016 26.78 12.33 9.82 4.63
Lion 2016 26.43 9.61 10.34 5.98
Hidden Figures 2016 22.74 10.27 9.06 2.91
Fences 2016 21.68 7.72 10.02 3.94
Hell or High Water 2016 20.76 9.17 6.84 4.75
The Big Short 2015 26.72 9.43 9.80 6.99
Bridge of Spies 2015 23.21 8.93 9.72 4.56
Brooklyn 2015 23.38 8.75 10.36 3.77
Mad Max: Fury Road 2015 29.79 12.63 9.33 7.33
The Martian 2015 25.30 11.36 8.45 5.49
The Revenant 2015 30.58 10.83 8.75 11.01
Room 2015 24.31 12.69 5.88 5.24
Spotlight 2015 32.05 12.51 10.32 8.72
Birdman 2014 32.77 11.48 10.29 10.50
Boyhood 2014 29.89 12.75 6.88 10.27
The Grand Budapest Hotel 2014 30.28 10.88 9.86 9.54
The Imitation Game 2014 29.14 11.43 9.41 7.80
American Sniper 2014 17.30 5.56 6.64 4.60
Whiplash 2014 26.27 14.81 5.78 5.18
The Theory of Everything 2014 24.72 7.80 10.35 6.07
Selma 2014 22.72 9.41 10.05 2.75
Gravity 2013 31.78 12.75 7.99 11.04
12 Years a Slave 2013 35.66 13.84 10.10 11.23
American Hustle 2013 28.28 8.27 8.99 11.03
Captain Phillips 2013 25.57 10.45 9.03 5.58
The Wolf of Wall Street 2013 27.13 11.63 9.42 6.08
Her 2013 24.84 12.69 6.70 4.95
Dallas Buyers Club 2013 23.26 11.17 6.75 4.83
Nebraska 2013 22.52 10.15 6.17 5.70
Philomena 2013 24.63 9.48 10.39 4.75
Argo 2012 31.65 11.05 9.21 10.89
Lincoln 2012 27.42 9.24 8.51 9.66
Django Unchained 2012 27.21 13.25 8.79 5.17
Life of Pi 2012 28.76 11.43 9.35 7.48
Zero Dark Thirty 2012 24.69 7.91 9.36 7.42
Silver Linings Playbook 2012 28.22 10.45 9.15 8.12
Les Miserables 2012 21.97 6.55 8.95 6.48
Amour 2012 22.40 11.05 5.29 5.56
Beasts of the Southern Wild 2012 15.74 5.37 5.88 4.48
The Artist 2011 38.14 14.08 10.42 13.64
Hugo 2011 29.64 11.24 9.91 8.00
The Descendants 2011 25.73 8.33 9.46 7.44
Midnight in Paris 2011 24.88 9.48 9.85 5.54
Moneyball 2011 24.67 9.05 9.47 5.65
The Help 2011 20.81 8.17 8.40 4.24
The Tree of Life 2011 14.01 3.85 6.04 4.13
War Horse 2011 15.72 3.80 9.40 2.52
Extremely Loud, Incredibly Close 2011 9.39 -3.25 10.37 1.77
The King's Speech 2010 36.57 13.72 9.22 13.13
The Social Network 2010 33.43 11.96 9.16 11.80
Inception 2010 30.51 15.37 7.87 7.27
Toy Story 3 2010 23.50 16.20 3.45 3.85
True Grit 2010 26.90 11.60 8.58 6.22
Black Swan 2010 29.33 13.31 9.01 6.52
The Fighter 2010 28.18 10.64 9.25 7.79
127 Hours 2010 22.29 10.57 6.32 5.40
The Kids Are All Right 2010 18.12 6.15 6.52 4.95
Winter's Bone 2010 16.54 6.81 5.48 4.25
The Hurt Locker 2009 29.96 9.96 6.23 13.27
Up 2009 25.99 13.72 7.88 4.39
Avatar 2009 19.01 11.55 0.74 6.73
Inglourious Basterds 2009 28.52 11.08 9.28 8.16
Up in the Air 2009 27.51 9.00 9.43 8.58
District 9 2009 25.24 11.67 9.35 3.72
Precious 2009 24.76 7.24 10.11 6.91
The Blind Side 2009 15.71 5.09 8.15 1.97
An Education 2009 16.41 6.81 5.91 3.68
A Serious Man 2009 13.81 4.64 5.67 3.00
Slumdog Millionaire 2008 36.48 12.93 8.82 14.22
Curious Case of Benjamin Button 2008 27.58 8.41 9.04 10.13
Milk 2008 28.18 9.60 10.35 7.73
Frost/Nixon 2008 23.41 9.79 6.46 6.67
The Reader 2008 20.65 4.37 10.30 5.47
The Dark Knight * 2008 22.03 16.57 0.96 4.50
No Country For Old Men 2007 35.17 12.69 9.47 12.50
There Will Be Blood 2007 29.72 12.03 10.17 7.52
Michael Clayton 2007 25.76 7.36 9.99 7.91
Atonement 2007 25.61 8.52 9.95 6.63
Juno 2007 24.45 9.84 8.77 5.84
Film Year Score
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 2017 33.29
The Shape of Water 2017 32.23
Dunkirk 2017 26.44
Lady Bird 2017 26.44
Get Out 2017 24.40
Call Me By Your Name 2017 24.16
Phantom Thread 2017 21.74
Darkest Hour 2017 19.56
The Post 2017 18.29
La La Land 2016 38.80
Manchester by the Sea 2016 30.70
Moonlight 2016 27.77
Arrival 2016 27.39
Hacksaw Ridge 2016 26.78
Lion 2016 26.43
Hidden Figures 2016 22.74
Fences 2016 21.68
Hell or High Water 2016 20.76
The Big Short 2015 26.72
Bridge of Spies 2015 23.21
Brooklyn 2015 23.38
Mad Max: Fury Road 2015 29.79
The Martian 2015 25.30
The Revenant 2015 30.58
Room 2015 24.31
Spotlight 2015 32.05
Birdman 2014 32.77
Boyhood 2014 29.89
The Grand Budapest Hotel 2014 30.28
The Imitation Game 2014 29.14
American Sniper 2014 17.30
Whiplash 2014 26.27
The Theory of Everything 2014 24.72
Selma 2014 22.72
Gravity 2013 31.78
12 Years a Slave 2013 35.66
American Hustle 2013 28.28
Captain Phillips 2013 25.57
The Wolf of Wall Street 2013 27.13
Her 2013 24.84
Dallas Buyers Club 2013 23.26
Nebraska 2013 22.52
Philomena 2013 24.63
Argo 2012 31.65
Lincoln 2012 27.42
Django Unchained 2012 27.21
Life of Pi 2012 28.76
Zero Dark Thirty 2012 24.69
Silver Linings Playbook 2012 28.22
Les Miserables 2012 21.97
Amour 2012 22.40
Beasts of the Southern Wild 2012 15.74
The Artist 2011 38.14
Hugo 2011 29.64
The Descendants 2011 25.73
Midnight in Paris 2011 24.88
Moneyball 2011 24.67
The Help 2011 20.81
The Tree of Life 2011 14.01
War Horse 2011 15.72
Extremely Loud, Incredibly Close 2011 9.39
The King's Speech 2010 36.57
The Social Network 2010 33.43
Inception 2010 30.51
Toy Story 3 2010 23.50
True Grit 2010 26.90
Black Swan 2010 29.33
The Fighter 2010 28.18
127 Hours 2010 22.29
The Kids Are All Right 2010 18.12
Winter's Bone 2010 16.54
The Hurt Locker 2009 29.96
Up 2009 25.99
Avatar 2009 19.01
Inglourious Basterds 2009 28.52
Up in the Air 2009 27.51
District 9 2009 25.24
Precious 2009 24.76
The Blind Side 2009 15.71
An Education 2009 16.41
A Serious Man 2009 13.81
Slumdog Millionaire 2008 36.48
Curious Case of Benjamin Button 2008 27.58
Milk 2008 28.18
Frost/Nixon 2008 23.41
The Reader 2008 20.65
The Dark Knight * 2008 22.03
No Country For Old Men 2007 35.17
There Will Be Blood 2007 29.72
Michael Clayton 2007 25.76
Atonement 2007 25.61
Juno 2007 24.45

* Not nominated, but included here for curiosity.


Best Picture Predictions

Oscar Prediction: 2017's Best Picture
Oscar Prediction: 2017's Best Picture
I'll be as surprised as you if it comes up accurate this year.
Oscar Prediction: 2016's Best Picture
Oscar Prediction: 2016's Best Picture
Will MSM's new 2.0 formula correctly predict the 89th Academy Awards Best Picture winner?

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